The exit polls, which are done by telephone interviews of people who are eligible to vote, are not an accurate measure of the electorate.
In recent presidential elections, exit polls have consistently shown that the number of people voting in a given election has been higher than the actual turnout, and exit polls are often used as a proxy for voter turnout.
However, the exit polls can be misleading because they often measure the electorate in a way that is not as meaningful as the actual vote.
The exit polling data used in this story is based on the exit poll data from the last presidential election, in 2000.
The data comes from the Gallup Daily tracking poll conducted between April 4 and April 16, 2000.
In the 2000 election, more than 90 percent of voters were over the age of 18.
In the last election, nearly 70 percent of eligible voters were 18 or older.
This means that if all eligible voters cast ballots, the turnout would be almost exactly 70 percent.
But because there were only a few million votes cast, the percentage of eligible citizens who actually cast ballots was lower.
In 2000, a national margin of victory of 0.3 percent of the votes cast was achieved.
In 2012, a margin of 4.6 percent of votes cast is the margin of defeat.
The total number of votes that are counted each election, the number that would be required to win the presidency, is much smaller than the number in 2000, and in 2012 it was smaller than it would be in 2020.
In 2020, a candidate needed to win a total of 6.5 percent of all eligible votes to secure the presidency.
In 2016, the margin was less than 1 percent.
In 2024, the overall vote total was less that 4.5 million.
If we assume that the average turnout was the same in 2020 and 2020 again, the probability of a candidate winning the presidency in 2020 is 3.3 to 3.4 percent.
For a candidate to win, the total number (including the number not counted) of votes must be greater than the total of the candidates in the race, or the candidate would need to be ahead by about 6.4 points in the popular vote and less than 2 points in electoral college votes to win.
For example, if a candidate received 9 percent of popular vote votes and had an average of 6 percent of electoral college vote totals, he or she would need an average margin of 9.3 electoral college to win in 2020 (or 1.6 percentage points).
If the average margin was greater than 6.3 points in 2020, the candidate had to win about 6 percent more votes in 2020 to win an election in 2020 than in 2020 or 2020.
A candidate that had a smaller margin in the 2020 election would need a larger margin in 2020 if the average difference in the two elections is less than 6 percentage points.
For the 2018 election, an average gap of 2.5 points in popular vote (the difference between the winner and the runner-up) and 3.6 points in Electoral College vote (an average difference of more than 4 points in presidential and vice presidential races) was the margin that Donald Trump won.
For a candidate who received fewer votes than expected in 2020 but received more than expected for 2020, he would need 4.4 percentage points in 2019 to win his bid for the presidency and 5.4 to win both presidential and Vice Presidential elections.
The numbers are based on exit polls conducted from April 4 through April 16 in the weeks leading up to the presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
They exclude the final day of voting, the first day of polling in early voting, and the closing of polling on Election Day.
Exit polls are conducted by telephone and the final exit poll is conducted from Election Day to April 16.
These data are not meant to be used to determine the accuracy of the final election outcome.
In order to make sense of the exit polling results, it is important to consider the size of the vote and the effect that the candidates would have on that vote.
In a presidential election that has historically been won by a candidate receiving more votes than the other candidates, the difference between where the candidates were at the end of the race and where they were today is important.
This chart shows the number and percentage of voters who voted in each presidential election in the 2000, 2020, and 2024 elections.
In 2021, Hillary Clinton received about 91 percent of registered voters, according to exit polls.
In 2019, she received 92 percent of that, according for exit polls, but in 2024, she had an overall margin of win of about 3 percent.
The gap between where Clinton and Trump would be today and where Clinton would have been had the exit-poll data been the same, the 2020 vote, and a similar gap between the number cast and the number counted in 2020 in 2020 would be more than 5.5 percentage points larger than the gap in